Vaccine Diplomacy: Competition and Potentials for Cooperation 

The Pandemic and Potentials for US-China Cooperation

             Many in the field of international relations believe that ensuring equitable access to vaccines, which is critical in advancing the world’s “health security” amidst the pandemic, is an essential goal that must transcend national boundaries and political differences if the international community wishes to bring the pandemic under control (Ghebreyesus; Adeshokan et al.; Huang and Kennedy 6). It is then worth asking, if possible, what it would look like if the US and China were to cooperate to address Africa’s COVID vaccine crisis? 

         According to a report published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a DC-based Think Tank, vaccine production and development happens to be a realm for collaboration between the US and China if the international community wishes to address its shortages (Huang and Kennedy 6). This rationale follows the idea that China has the ability to mass-produce vaccines at a more rapid pace, while the US and its allies have the technology to produce the highly-effective mRNA vaccines (Huang and Kennedy 7). Given that the efficacy of China’s Sinovac and Sinopharm vaccines are relatively lower against newer variants, it is then reasonable to conclude that giving China the technology (or licensing Chinese pharmaceuticals) to mass-produce mRNA vaccines would substantially address the world’s vaccine shortage (Huang and Kennedy 7). Furthermore, multiple routes already exist for China and the US to cooperate on the mass production of mRNA vaccines. Such cooperation can take the form of voluntary technologies sharing, given that the US government already has both financial and scientific influence over Moderna. Additionally, it can also take the form of expanding the existing Shanghai-based joint-venture of Germany’s BioNTech and China’s Fosun Pharmaceutical Group (“Production line of mRNA vaccine”). There are also some existing Chinese mRNA vaccines currently under development and trials. The US can certainly participate in further development of mRNA vaccines R&D based in China (Huang and Kennedy 7-8). In other words, it is possible for the US and China to cooperate and help address the global vaccine shortage by building on top of the existing international frameworks for vaccine development, manufacturing, and distribution. 

                Despite the potential for cooperation, one should still bear in mind that the current prospect for the US and China to cooperate is low. Existing tensions associated with Taiwan, the South China Sea, IP theft, and other issues of enormous importance have made reconciliation between the two great powers extremely difficult in the foreseeable future. However, addressing the even distribution of vaccines in Africa is still more possible than resolving the more contentious issues mentioned above. In fact, making vaccines more equitable for lower-income states does not pose an existential threat for both the US and China—the potential for vaccine distribution to be a realm of cooperation remains high.

            This article addresses different manifestations of the US and China’s strategic rivalry amidst the pandemic and its associated vaccine shortage, a problem that unevenly plagues the lower-income states of Africa. China’s vaccine diplomacy, characterized by the country’s ability to ramp up the production of Sinovac and Sinopharm vaccines, has seen early success in the continent. However, as the efficacies of these Chinese-manufactured vaccines waned in the face of new variants, the US and its allies are keen on re-asserting their diplomatic presence on the continent, whether it is through donations or plans to expand local vaccine productions in Africa. As the supply of vaccines rises significantly in Africa, logistical and operation struggles also emerge as poor infrastructure, insufficient medical personnel, and vaccine’s short expiration date, among other reasons, constitute substantial obstacles to the rollout of vaccines. Lastly, the article discusses the potential for US-China cooperation on vaccine development and mass-production. While the outlook seems unlikely given the current hostility between the two great powers, cooperation is still possible based on some existing frameworks and entities for vaccine R&D, manufacturing, and distribution.